xFIP

Today we’ll look at 2010 xFIP and see if we can predict 2011 ERA. xFIP is similar to FIP but assumes the 11.5% league average for HR/FB%. Additionally, it proves that a higher rate of ground balls will predict fewer homeruns on average. A few pitchers come to mind on this list as having been lucky and may not be worth paying full price for in 2011. Others will be shown as unlucky and could provide bargain value if things even out in 2011. The first chart shows eight pitchers who had much better ERA’s than xFIP. These pitchers should regress to the mean in 2011. Each of them had close to a full run differential. Player 2010 ERA xFIP (Likely 2011 ERA) Jeremy Guthrie ....